Global air cargo demand rose 5.6% year-on-year in January 2026 (+7.2% for international), while capacity expanded 3.6% (+5.7% international), according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Beneath the headline growth, however, regional performance diverged sharply: Africa posted its seventh straight month of double‑digit gains (+18.2%), while the Americas saw a sixth consecutive contraction. Capacity also hit record January levels, with Asia Pacific leading the expansion, though its growth rate was the weakest since 2020, a sign of capacity fatigue.
Trade lane performance was also uneven, with Africa–Asia rebounding strongly (+41.6% year-on-year), Europe–Asia and intra-Asia flows continuing double‑digit growth, while Asia–North America remained weak amid tariff-driven distortions.
Global cargo load factor edged up to 45.1% in January, with Africa recording the sharpest improvement, while the Middle East slipped to its lowest level since 1990 as capacity growth outpaced demand.
“The demand for air cargo had a robust start to 2026, recording 5.6% year-on-year growth in January. At the regional level, the story is more polarised. Carriers in Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Europe all reported faster growth than the global average. In contrast, carriers in the Americas reported aggregate contractions.”
“The resilience of air cargo will continue to be tested in the coming months. In addition to the long-running uncertainties of evolving US trade policies, the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East will both weigh heavily on global supply chains. Addressing these topics will add extra importance to discussions at the upcoming World Cargo Symposium in Lima, Peru (10-12 March 2026), where strengthening air cargo’s adaptability and efficiency through digitalisation and other measures will be a key focus,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Several factors in the operating environment should be noted: the global goods trade grew 4.9% year-on-year in December 2025, while jet fuel prices fell 6.5% in January and global manufacturing sentiment strengthened as the PMI rose to 51.8, its highest in over a year and a half.
The PMI for new export orders climbed to 49.9, slightly below the growth threshold but the highest in 10 months, reflecting mixed but cautiously optimistic industrial growth.
January regional performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 7.8% year-on-year growth in air cargo demand in January, maintaining the region’s role as the primary engine of the industry expansion. Capacity increased by 3.3% year-on-year.
North American carriers saw a 0.5% year-on-year decline for air cargo demand in January. North America was the only region showing a capacity decrease, slightly declining by 0.2% year-on-year.
European airlines saw a 6.9% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in January. Capacity increased 4.9% year-on-year.
Middle Eastern carriers saw a 9.3% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in January. Capacity increased by 9.9% year-on-year, the strongest rise of all regions.
Latin American and Caribbean carriers saw a 2.0% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in January, the weakest performance of all regions. Meanwhile, capacity increased by 2.3% year-on-year.
African airlines saw a 18.2% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in January, the strongest growth of all regions. Capacity increased by 6.5% year-on-year.
