…as capacity outpaces Demand
African passenger traffic is projected to reach 137.3 million in 2026, marking a 21.5 percent increase from 2025. However, African carriers are expected to earn a profit margin of only 0.2 percent, among the thinnest of any region globally as capacity growth continues to outstrip demand growth.
The figures were disclosed by the African media roundtable held at the Sarit Expo Centre in Nairobi, themed “Resilient African Aviation: Partnerships, Empowerment, Profitability
AFRAA, whose 50 member airlines carry over 85 percent of international traffic among African operators, issued an urgent appeal to governments, regional institutions, and financing partners to implement coordinated interventions to help airlines convert surging travel demand into sustainable profitability.
Despite Africa’s population climbing to 1.58 billion in 2026 with a median age of 19, and continental economies expanding at 4.3 percent annually, air travel penetration remains at just 7 percent of the population—among the lowest worldwide
African airlines are being forced to navigate operational bottlenecks that severely compress profitability. Taxes, fees, and charges account for 35 to 40 percent of African ticket prices, compared to a global average of roughly 20 percent.
Simultaneously, governments across the continent are withholding an estimated $774 million in blocked airline funds as of March 2026, representing the largest regional share of trapped funds globally.
The continent also faces significant structural inequities in fleet procurement and infrastructure investment. Africa receives just 2.0 percent of global aircraft deliveries, lagging far behind Asia-Pacific (35.6 percent) and Europe (24.0 percent). This shortfall comes at a time when Africa requires an estimated $25 billion to $30 billion in airport and air navigation infrastructure over the next decade
Operational costs are further exacerbated by conflict-driven airspace closures across the Sahel. A no-fly corridor spanning roughly 4,000 kilometres across Niger, Mali, Sudan, and Libya is forcing carriers into lengthy, expensive reroutings that increase fuel burn and operating expenditure
Speaking at the event, Abderahmane Berthe, AFRAA Secretary General, emphasised that while African aviation is prepared to drive regional growth, systemic hurdles are stalling progress.
“African aviation is ready to deliver on its promise to connect our economies, move our trade, and carry the growth that this continent’s youth and enterprise are already generating,” Berthe stated.
“But readiness is not the same as capacity. Our airlines are being asked to carry that promise on some of the thinnest margins in the world, while absorbing costs, blocked funds and shocks that carriers elsewhere simply do not face
“We are calling on governments to release what is owed, to lower the tax burden on air travel, and to convert the liberalisation they have already signed up to into practice on the ground.
“We are equally grateful for the partnership of Afreximbank, the African Development Bank, and the African Union Commission, whose engagement on financing and infrastructure gives us real momentum to build on. With that support matched at scale, African airlines can do what they do best: drive the growth, resilience and connectivity our continent needs.”
To tackle these systemic issues, AFRAA outlined a strategic six-point agenda aimed at building operational resilience, which includes fleet financing solutions, long-haul capacity expansion, market liberalisation and safety enhancements, airspace efficiency and localising Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) capacity.
