…To overtake Europe as continent’s top market
…World’s cargo traffic to double by 2045
Air cargo traffic is expected to double by 2045, driving demand for nearly 3,000 new and converted freighters as operators expand fleets and replace aging aircraft.
Boeing released its 2026 World Air Cargo Forecast on October 28 at the International Air Cargo Association’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami in which the manufacturer said it expects the global freighter fleet to grow from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 by 2045, an increase of 67%.
Of the 2,930 freighter deliveries forecast over the two decades, about 55% would support growth and 45% would replace retiring aircraft. Converted passenger jets are expected to make up roughly two-thirds of those deliveries.
According to the report, the Africa–East Asia cargo flow has been the fastest growing in the world over the past decade as East Asia is now Africa’s second-largest air cargo partner and a major source of imports, with most of those goods coming from China.
Boeing said is majorly due to e-commerce as Africa’s mobile usage is widespread, with mobile devices driving roughly two-thirds of web traffic, and online sales remain low relative to the continent’s size. Africa accounts for only about half a percent of global e-commerce sales, even though it is home to nearly one-fifth of the world’s population.
Boeing also noted in its report that the shift from aid loans toward foreign direct investment is supporting industrialization across the continent and predicted that 12 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies over the next two decades are expected to be in Africa.
The Africa–East Asia market is forecast to nearly triple in volume and overtake Europe as Africa’s largest air cargo market. Boeing says e-commerce and industrialization are diversifying demand beyond the traditional perishables segment. Drivers include a growing consumer base, private investment in manufacturing, and intra-African e-commerce flows. Risks include inadequate transport and digital infrastructure, weak integration between air and ground transport, uneven economic growth, and fragmented regulation with slow liberalization.
However, Europe remains Africa’s largest air cargo partner, receiving roughly two-thirds of African air exports. Fresh horticultural products, including cut flowers, fruit, and vegetables, dominate that trade, and perishables account for the large majority of Africa-to-Europe volume.
Disruptions in the Red Sea have reinforced the value of air freight’s speed and reliability for these goods, even as some producers are diversifying toward Asia and the Middle East. Cold chain investment is reducing spoilage, but gaps in rural first-mile capacity still leave up to 30 to 40 percent of produce lost after harvest. Boeing points to shared-use and solar-powered facilities as promising models. Imports from Europe, meanwhile, are more diversified, covering industrial, electronic, and manufactured goods, and demand is expected to grow as Africa industrializes. Boeing also flags risks on this route, including European efforts to decarbonize supply chains and slow adoption of trade and air liberalization.
