Thursday 17th September, 2026 08:14 PM|
Africa’s aviation industry is expanding rapidly, but rising passenger demand is exposing a deeper problem: the continent’s airlines are struggling to turn growth in traffic into sustainable control of the market.
New data from the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) shows that seat capacity across Africa increased by 8.8 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, while capacity on intra-African routes rose 10.5 per cent. Yet African carriers continue to face high operating costs, limited access to aircraft and stiff competition from foreign airlines.
The cost pressure is particularly visible in fuel. AFRAA put the global average jet fuel price at Ksh 21,231.00 ($163.87) per barrel in the week ending August 21.
For airlines already operating on thin margins, the difference matters.
AFRAA’s latest figures
The challenge extends beyond individual airlines. AFRAA’s latest figures show African carriers held only 36.7 per cent of intercontinental traffic in June, compared with 63.3 per cent for non-African airlines.
That means much of the value created by Africans travelling to Europe, Asia, the Middle East and the Americas continues to be captured by carriers outside the continent.
AFRAA Secretary General Abderahmane Berthé has framed the issue as a question of who benefits from Africa’s expanding aviation market.
“The policy question for Member States is not whether Africa will grow, but who will capture that growth African carriers and economies, or external competitors,” said Berthé.
The infrastructure and fleet gap makes the question more urgent. Africa accounted for only two per cent of global aircraft deliveries, according to AFRAA, while the association estimates that African airlines spend about Ksh233.3 billion annually on overseas aircraft maintenance.
That money represents an opportunity as well as a cost. Developing local maintenance, repair and overhaul capacity could retain more aviation expenditure within Africa while reducing dependence on facilities abroad.
Kenya is already confronting the policy side of the problem. The Kenya Civil Aviation Authority endorsed an industry request for exemption from the proposed 16.5 per cent VAT on aircraft spares and components, arguing that lower costs could reduce aircraft downtime and support Nairobi’s ambition to become a regional maintenance hub.
The emerging picture is therefore more complicated than a simple aviation recovery. Africa has passengers, routes and growing demand. The unresolved question is whether governments and airlines can build the fleets, maintenance systems and cost structures required to ensure that the next phase of aviation growth is increasingly captured by African carriers themselves.
