On paper, African aviation is soaring. Latest figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) show regional passenger demand grew by 6.7% year-on-year in August 2026 – outpacing global growth.
Yet behind the headline numbers lies a far more fragile reality.
With airlines expanding capacity faster than travellers can fill seats, load factors are dropping, operating costs remain steep, and restricted market access continues to choke true regional connectivity.
However, capacity increased by 8.3%, meaning available seats grew faster than passenger demand. Africa’s passenger load factor consequently fell by 1.2 percentage points to 78.4%, well below the global industry average of 85.1%.
The figures underline the continued recovery and growth of African aviation, but also highlight the challenges facing airlines as they try to expand connectivity while keeping aircraft economically viable.
Africa is still a small share of global aviation
Air transport economist and lecturer Dr Joachim Vermooten said the 6.7% increase needs to be viewed against the relatively small size of Africa’s aviation market.
African airlines represented only 1.9% of the world’s revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) in 2025, he said, while the continent’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic initially lagged behind other regions.
“Africa’s initial recovery post Covid-19 was slower than the rest of the world, catching up now,” Vermooten said.
He said the faster increase in capacity was concerning because it meant more seats were being produced than passengers were taking up, contributing to pressure on African airlines’ already weak financial performance.
Airlink CEO de Villiers Engelbrecht also pointed to the relatively small size of Africa’s aviation market.
“While sustained demand is welcome, we have to also recognise that Africa only represents about two percent of the total global air travel market, so any growth is coming off a low base,” he said.
According to Engelbrecht, the potential market is substantially larger than the market currently being served, but competition remains restricted in many African countries.
Airlink sees continued demand
Despite the broader industry challenges, Airlink said it continues to see growing demand across its regional network, although the pace has slowed since March.
The airline operates to more than 45 destinations in 16 countries across Southern and Eastern Africa, as well as St Helena Island.
Engelbrecht said higher jet-fuel prices and their knock-on effect on the cost of travel and transport had contributed to the slower growth in demand.
Airlink has nevertheless continued to add routes.
The airline launched its Johannesburg-Zanzibar service and began operating Cape Town-Mauritius flights on Friday, October 2. Its new Cape Town-Zanzibar service began on Saturday, October 3.
It has also announced plans for a Johannesburg Lanseria-Harare service, with further route announcements expected.
Capacity does not automatically mean cheaper fares
The increase in African airline capacity raises an obvious question for travellers: will more seats eventually mean greater competition and lower fares?
Not necessarily, according to the industry.
Engelbrecht said Airlink takes a conservative approach to adding capacity. The airline has recently acquired seven new Embraer E195-E2 aircraft, but he said these are being used partly to meet existing demand and partly to make new routes commercially viable.
He warned against airlines adding capacity too aggressively and then cutting fares below sustainable levels to fill seats.
“South Africa has seen a long list of airlines that failed because they introduced too much capacity too quickly and then tried to dump fares to sub-economic levels to try and fill seats,” Engelbrecht said.
“This is not sustainable.”
Instead, he said sustained competition would require African markets to be opened to equitable competition, while governments and aviation infrastructure providers avoid continually increasing taxes and user charges.
High costs remain a problem
The cost of operating in Africa is another major constraint.
Engelbrecht said African airlines face significantly higher operating costs than airlines in many other markets, particularly when it comes to fuel.
He said jet fuel in Africa is approximately 17% more expensive than the global average, while aviation infrastructure charges are also disproportionately high.
The cost pressures come at a time when airline profitability across the continent remains extremely thin.
IATA’s 2026 industry outlook forecasts that African airlines will achieve an average net profit of just 0.2%, equivalent to approximately US$0.20 per passenger. Engelbrecht put the figure at roughly R7 per passenger.
The combination of high costs, relatively low passenger volumes and restricted competition therefore creates a difficult operating environment for African carriers.
Market access remains a major issue
For Vermooten, the problem is also structural.
He said African regulatory and commercial barriers to entry and expansion mean that additional unused capacity will not necessarily translate into more competitive airfares.
He argued that the South African airlines still face limitations in accessing markets including Namibia, Angola, Mauritius, Tanzania, Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, restricting their ability to introduce or expand services.
Vermooten said Africa’s small share of global RPK reflects an aviation market that remains less liberalised than other regions.
He argued that the market-access principles envisaged under the Yamoussoukro Declaration and the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) need to be translated into a multilateral framework that gives participating African airlines broader access to routes across the continent.
What this means for travellers
For passengers, the latest data therefore offer a more complicated picture than simply “more flights mean cheaper tickets”.
There is clear demand for greater connectivity, and airlines such as Airlink are responding by adding routes and deploying larger-range aircraft.
But the benefits of additional capacity depend on whether airlines can operate those routes sustainably and whether African markets become more open to competition.
IATA’s August figures show that Africa’s passenger demand is growing, but the region’s load factor remains below the global average.
At the same time, airlines are contending with fuel costs, airport charges, taxes and regulatory restrictions.
For Airlink, the opportunity lies in connecting markets that remain underserved, while avoiding the cycle of unsustainable capacity and fare competition that has contributed to airline failures in South Africa.
For Vermooten, the longer-term opportunity is broader: removing structural barriers to intra-African aviation could allow the continent’s largely untapped air travel market to develop.
The August figures therefore point to an African aviation market with significant growth potential, but one where demand alone will not be enough to unlock that potential.
Greater connectivity will ultimately depend on the economics of operating routes, the cost of aviation infrastructure and how successfully African countries open their markets to competition.
zamandosi.cele@nationalmg.co.za
