The warning followed an expansion of Ukrainian drone operations inside Russia, which have caused temporary airport closures, flight delays and cancellations.
Ukraine formally asked the International Civil Aviation Organization to encourage its member states to stop airlines from using Russian airspace, Reuters reported.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine was not targeting passenger aircraft. His government argued, however, that the combination of military activity, air-defence operations and increasingly long-range drone attacks had made Russian skies unsafe for commercial aviation.
Russia rejected the warning. Moscow said it was capable of protecting civilian aircraft and accused Ukraine of attempting to frighten airlines and disrupt international travel.
The Ukrainian request is not an international prohibition. ICAO can issue guidance and coordinate aviation standards, but it cannot independently compel countries to close their airspace.
Russia has not announced a general closure, and no African airline has publicly suspended its Russian services because of Ukraine’s warning.
Russia remains connected to six African countries
Current schedule information compiled by FlightConnections shows 46 nonstop route pairs linking Russia with Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco, Seychelles and Tanzania.
Nine airlines operate the connections from 22 Russian airports to ten African destinations.
The figure refers to scheduled airport-to-airport routes, not 46 daily flights. Some are seasonal services or holiday charters, meaning the total can change as airlines revise their schedules.
Egypt accounts for a large share of the network because Russian tourists travel in significant numbers to Red Sea destinations such as Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh.
The wider connections include services operated by Ethiopian Airlines, Royal Air Maroc, Air Algérie and Air Tanzania, as well as Russian airlines carrying passengers to Africa.
Aeroflot, for example, operates a direct service between Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport and Mahé in Seychelles.
Temporary closures can spread disruption across continents
Russian airports have repeatedly suspended operations when authorities detected incoming drones or activated air defences.
A temporary closure can force an aircraft already in the air to circle, divert to another airport or return to its point of departure. Aircraft waiting to leave may remain on the ground for hours.
Those disruptions can spread through an airline’s network because crews exceed their permitted working hours and aircraft are left in the wrong cities.
The direct African services face a different decision because Russia is their destination rather than territory they can easily fly around.
Egypt, Tanzania and Seychelles have tourism exposure
Any sustained disruption could have consequences for African tourism.
Egypt, Tanzania and Seychelles actively attract Russian holidaymakers. Delays, cancellations or concerns about passenger safety could affect hotels, tour operators and other businesses serving those travellers.
Ethiopian Airlines and Royal Air Maroc also operate connecting hubs. Their Russian passengers may continue from Addis Ababa or Casablanca to destinations elsewhere in Africa, Europe and the Americas.
The potential impact therefore extends beyond people travelling directly between Russia and Africa.
Students, traders and business travellers could also face higher fares or fewer options if airlines reduce their schedules.
Insurers represent another important part of the decision. An airline may continue flying only if its insurer is willing to cover the route at an acceptable price. Higher perceived risk can lead to larger premiums, additional conditions or exclusions.
No selected African airline or regulator has publicly announced such a change.
African airlines must conduct their own risk assessments
Airlines generally assess conflict-zone risks using government intelligence, notices to air missions, aircraft manufacturers’ advice, airport information and specialist aviation-security assessments.
They must now weigh Ukraine’s warning against Russia’s assurances that its airspace remains safe.
Western airlines have largely avoided Russian territory since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Airlines from China, Turkey, the Gulf and several African countries have continued operating.
That has given some non-Western carriers shorter routes and access to a market abandoned by European competitors. It has also left them more exposed to disruptions inside Russia.
Safety concerns could place additional pressure on carriers already dealing with expensive fuel, aircraft shortages and disrupted international airspace.
There is no evidence at present that all commercial flights over Russia face an immediate danger. There is also no evidence that the 46 African routes will be cancelled.
The confirmed development is that Ukraine has formally asked for international action, Russia has rejected its warning and airlines connecting the two regions must decide whether their existing precautions remain sufficient.
Until one of those airlines or regulators changes its operating rules, the routes remain scheduled. What has changed is the scrutiny attached to them.
