Supply disruptions have also raised concerns at major hubs including Nairobi, Kenya, and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where consistent jet fuel availability is critical to regional and international operations, Berthe said.
Some airlines have already begun adjusting networks, cutting frequencies and reviewing routes to manage rising costs and fuel uncertainty, he said.
Reduce reliance
The crisis has renewed calls for Africa to strengthen domestic refining capacity and reduce reliance on imported jet fuel.
“We need African solutions,” Berthe said. “Many African countries produce oil, but we still depend on non-African suppliers for refined jet fuel.”
Attention is increasingly turning to projects such as Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery, which is expected to play a growing role in supplying refined fuel across the region, including to countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia and South Africa.
“We have seen hubs like Addis (Ababa) turning to Dangote for supply,” Berthe said. “This is expected to ease pressure on fuel supply chains during this period.”
Despite the pressures, demand for air travel in Africa remains strong. AFRAA projects passenger growth of about 6% annually, outpacing many global markets.
But Berthe warned that sustained shocks could weigh heavily on profitability and connectivity.
“If this continues, the impact on African airlines will be very severe,” he said. “If Africa wants a resilient aviation sector, it must secure its own fuel future.”
